Financial Times desafia (com bom humor) Mantega, a examinar a realidade com valor real e não com o real

O Financial Times, na coluna LEX da sua edição de ontem, faz uma brincadeira com o conceito de "guerra cambial" do ministro Mantega, que imagina estar diante de uma guerra comercial e não diante de uma crise no sistema de trocas global,  e procura imaginar como seria uma carta do Ben Bernanke, o presidente do FED, o Banco Central americano,  ao ministro da Fazenda do Brasil. Ele utiliza a palavra "real" em duplo sentido. Aí ao lado, você tem uma ferramenta de tradução para o português. Utilize.

Lex: Currency wars
12/01/2011
Dear Mr Mantega,


Being frustrated politicians ourselves, we at the Federal Reserve rather envy you your currency war tub-thumping. But as Brazil’s finance minister you might want to think of the consequences if we were actually to treat your ramblings seriously. You say that “deep down” our policy of quantitative easing is a trade strategy – a weapon to boost competitiveness at your expense. Ending QE with a sharp rise in US interest rates would indeed strengthen the dollar against the real. But it would also make America’s fragile economy crumble, by increasing the cost of corporate debt, at a record level of almost 50 per cent of gross domestic product and (through higher mortgage rates) destroying the property market and bank balance sheets (32 per cent of the $13,400 billion in bank assets are loans secured on real estate). Consumption would tumble.
And you must remember what happened when the US economy went pop almost three years ago? Money flooded out of Brazil and your claimed self-sustaining growth engine stalled. And if interest rate differentials suddenly move in our favour, investors would cease to find the returns on Brazilian assets so attractive. And you actually need their hot money to help increase investment levels from a low fifth of GDP as well as to balance your current account deficit.But Mr Mantega, it was big of you to complain about China too, this time. Thanks for that. Ultimately the real is so strong because commodity prices are so high, and that in turn is because China’s currency has been kept artificially low. OK, our QE makes that problem even worse. But frankly, Mr Mantega, you need to get off our case on that one. QE is just another form of monetary policy and US rates are low because our economy is currently weaker than yours. When the outlook improves, we will tighten. You’re not exactly suffering down there. Or is there something worrying you that markets don’t yet appreciate?
Yours sincerely,
Ben Bernanke


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